Trump Declares Iran Ceasefire 'Over' as IRGC Seizes Control of Negotiations

President Donald Trump declared the US-Iran ceasefire "over" on Wednesday, accusing Iranian negotiators of lying and cheating in a stunning public rebuke that has exposed a deeper crisis in Washington's approach to Tehran: after the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, it is no longer clear who in Iran actually holds the power to make — and keep — a deal.

Speaking at the NATO summit in Ankara, Trump delivered a blunt assessment of the stalled negotiations.

"I don't know if we're going to have a deal. We may just do it without a deal. These people, they lie and they cheat."

The president's frustration comes after Iran launched fresh attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a massive US military response and effectively ending a fragile ceasefire that had been brokered just weeks earlier.

The IRGC: Iran's New Power Brokers

Since the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — killed in the opening US-Israeli strikes on February 28 — authority in Tehran has fractured. His son, Mojtaba Khamenei, succeeded him as supreme leader but has not appeared publicly since the attack. US intelligence assessments described by Reuters indicate that power has dispersed among senior Revolutionary Guard commanders and powerful civilian officials, with no single figure able to speak authoritatively for the regime.

Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a former IRGC commander who led Iran's negotiating delegation, has emerged as one of the country's most powerful surviving political figures. But experts say his authority is far from absolute.

Banafsheh Zand, an Iranian-American journalist and editor of the Iran So Far Away Substack, told Fox News Digital that power inside the Islamic Republic has fractured since Khamenei's death, leaving the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as the country's dominant force.

"The person who is negotiating with the U.S. is not necessarily someone who is endorsed by the others."

Zand identified multiple competing power centers, including IRGC commander-in-chief Ahmad Vahidi, Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani, and former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. Vahidi controls the IRGC's overall military structure, while Qaani oversees its external operations and relationships with Iran-aligned armed groups across the region.

"The hardliners, in terms of their political presence, have also been pushed aside. So really, it's the IRGC. And within the IRGC, whoever signs the deal is not necessarily signing on behalf of everybody else. They're signing on behalf of themselves."

A Regime That Is 'Weaker, But Lethal'

Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, described the Islamic Republic as a paradox: diminished in capability but emboldened in ambition.

"This is a regime that is weaker, but lethal, and less capable, but more confident."

Ben Taleblu said Iran's leaders appear to believe escalation is essential to the survival of the Islamic Republic, and that their survival "runs through more, not less, escalation." The regime believes its adversaries have vulnerable economic and military interests throughout the Gulf, while the regime itself is more willing to accept destruction.

Iran's Strategy: Manufactured Crises as Leverage

Lisa Daftari, a foreign policy analyst and editor-in-chief of The Foreign Desk, said Tehran's escalation is deliberate — aimed at turning regional instability into bargaining chips.

"By targeting commercial shipping and Arab states, the regime is signaling that it can hold global energy flows and America's regional partners hostage to extract leverage, distract from its domestic crisis, and test U.S. red lines."

Daftari argued that Tehran is betting Washington and its Arab partners will be unwilling to sustain another war and will ultimately back down first.

"The regime's core weapon is time. By escalating in the Persian Gulf and attacking ships and Arab states, they are creating rolling crises that raise the cost of confronting them while they consolidate power at home."

She was unequivocal about the regime's fundamental character: "This regime was never designed to be reformed or softened. What they are showing us now is exactly who they intend to remain: a hardline, revolutionary regime determined to stay in power."

The Strait of Hormuz Dispute

The ceasefire's collapse centers in part on a fundamental disagreement over the Strait of Hormuz. A Middle Eastern source familiar with the negotiations told Fox News Digital that Tehran and Washington are operating from completely different readings of the ceasefire memorandum's Clause Five.

The publicly released text says Iran will use its "best efforts" to arrange safe commercial passage through the strait without charge for 60 days, while removing military obstacles and conducting demining operations. It does not expressly state that foreign vessels must obtain Iran's approval or use routes designated by Tehran.

Iran interprets that language as giving it responsibility — and therefore authority — to coordinate shipping and determine vessel routes. Washington's interpretation is that Iran agreed to lift its maritime blockade and fully reopen the international waterway.

"When the two sides have different interpretations of a single page, how do they intend to write a treaty?"

Iran views control over passage through the Strait of Hormuz as one of its last major sources of leverage over the United States, Gulf governments, and the global economy. That, the source said, "is the heart of the matter."

What Comes Next

Trump's declaration does not necessarily mean diplomacy has been permanently abandoned. Ben Taleblu said the clearest evidence of a genuine shift would be the restoration of a US blockade, the introduction of additional military forces, or a new round of major economic sanctions. Otherwise, Trump may continue operating in the "gray zone" between negotiations and open war while keeping his options open.

The broader challenge for Washington is stark: even if Iranian officials return to the negotiating table, the IRGC could continue targeting commercial shipping, US interests, and American allies to preserve its leverage and strengthen its position inside Iran. The fundamental problem — that Iran's negotiators, political institutions, and military commanders may not share the same interpretation of what was agreed, or the same willingness to implement it — remains unresolved.

For now, the ceasefire is dead, the IRGC is ascendant, and the Islamic Republic has made clear that its survival strategy depends on manufacturing crises, not ending them. Whether Trump chooses to meet that strategy with overwhelming force or continued gray-zone maneuvering may define the trajectory of US-Iran relations for years to come.

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This article is a summary and analysis of reporting by Efrat Lachter for Fox News Digital, published July 8, 2026.